Swedish Riksdag election forecast

National vote forecast

Median vote share with the central 90% predictive interval (light) and 50% predictive interval (solid). These are predictive intervals, not confidence intervals. Select a party to see every interval and to highlight it across the page.

Seats

The Riksdag has 349 seats and 175 is a majority. Bars show the marginal median seat count per party; the darker line shows the central 90% predictive range.

Party-group probabilities

Only the groups published in groups.json are shown. Group membership is defined by the publication, not by this page.

Change since the prior forecast