{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "as_of": "2026-08-27",
  "election_date": "2026-09-13",
  "model": {
    "name": "ElectionSimulator",
    "version": "1.0.0-rc1",
    "candidate": "A"
  },
  "total_samples": 100000,
  "parties": {
    "M": {
      "party": "M",
      "vote_share_mean": 18.171,
      "vote_share_median": 18.621,
      "vote_share_p05": 14.57,
      "vote_share_p95": 20.125,
      "prob_above_4pct": 1.0,
      "prob_below_4pct": 0.0,
      "prob_largest_vote_party": 0.0,
      "seats_mean": 66.02,
      "seats_median": 68,
      "seats_p05": 54,
      "seats_p95": 73,
      "prob_largest_seat_party": 0.0,
      "prob_any_seats": 1.0,
      "prob_local_12pct_exception_sub_4pct": 0.0,
      "vote_share_p10": 14.961,
      "vote_share_p25": 17.696,
      "vote_share_p75": 19.348,
      "vote_share_p90": 19.853,
      "seats_p10": 55,
      "seats_p25": 64,
      "seats_p75": 70,
      "seats_p90": 72
    },
    "L": {
      "party": "L",
      "vote_share_mean": 2.006,
      "vote_share_median": 1.971,
      "vote_share_p05": 1.08,
      "vote_share_p95": 3.274,
      "prob_above_4pct": 0.0,
      "prob_below_4pct": 1.0,
      "prob_largest_vote_party": 0.0,
      "seats_mean": 0.0,
      "seats_median": 0,
      "seats_p05": 0,
      "seats_p95": 0,
      "prob_largest_seat_party": 0.0,
      "prob_any_seats": 0.0,
      "prob_local_12pct_exception_sub_4pct": 0.0,
      "vote_share_p10": 1.192,
      "vote_share_p25": 1.493,
      "vote_share_p75": 2.256,
      "vote_share_p90": 3.153,
      "seats_p10": 0,
      "seats_p25": 0,
      "seats_p75": 0,
      "seats_p90": 0
    },
    "C": {
      "party": "C",
      "vote_share_mean": 6.897,
      "vote_share_median": 6.813,
      "vote_share_p05": 5.826,
      "vote_share_p95": 8.039,
      "prob_above_4pct": 1.0,
      "prob_below_4pct": 0.0,
      "prob_largest_vote_party": 0.0,
      "seats_mean": 25.07,
      "seats_median": 25,
      "seats_p05": 21,
      "seats_p95": 29,
      "prob_largest_seat_party": 0.0,
      "prob_any_seats": 1.0,
      "prob_local_12pct_exception_sub_4pct": 0.0,
      "vote_share_p10": 6.024,
      "vote_share_p25": 6.386,
      "vote_share_p75": 7.461,
      "vote_share_p90": 7.852,
      "seats_p10": 22,
      "seats_p25": 23,
      "seats_p75": 27,
      "seats_p90": 29
    },
    "KD": {
      "party": "KD",
      "vote_share_mean": 6.403,
      "vote_share_median": 6.386,
      "vote_share_p05": 5.442,
      "vote_share_p95": 7.424,
      "prob_above_4pct": 1.0,
      "prob_below_4pct": 0.0,
      "prob_largest_vote_party": 0.0,
      "seats_mean": 23.27,
      "seats_median": 23,
      "seats_p05": 20,
      "seats_p95": 27,
      "prob_largest_seat_party": 0.0,
      "prob_any_seats": 1.0,
      "prob_local_12pct_exception_sub_4pct": 0.0,
      "vote_share_p10": 5.635,
      "vote_share_p25": 5.983,
      "vote_share_p75": 6.803,
      "vote_share_p90": 7.199,
      "seats_p10": 21,
      "seats_p25": 22,
      "seats_p75": 25,
      "seats_p90": 26
    },
    "S": {
      "party": "S",
      "vote_share_mean": 30.356,
      "vote_share_median": 30.105,
      "vote_share_p05": 28.731,
      "vote_share_p95": 32.393,
      "prob_above_4pct": 1.0,
      "prob_below_4pct": 0.0,
      "prob_largest_vote_party": 1.0,
      "seats_mean": 110.35,
      "seats_median": 110,
      "seats_p05": 104,
      "seats_p95": 118,
      "prob_largest_seat_party": 1.0,
      "prob_any_seats": 1.0,
      "prob_local_12pct_exception_sub_4pct": 0.0,
      "vote_share_p10": 29.008,
      "vote_share_p25": 29.474,
      "vote_share_p75": 31.309,
      "vote_share_p90": 32.051,
      "seats_p10": 105,
      "seats_p25": 107,
      "seats_p75": 113,
      "seats_p90": 117
    },
    "V": {
      "party": "V",
      "vote_share_mean": 7.598,
      "vote_share_median": 7.634,
      "vote_share_p05": 6.476,
      "vote_share_p95": 8.681,
      "prob_above_4pct": 1.0,
      "prob_below_4pct": 0.0,
      "prob_largest_vote_party": 0.0,
      "seats_mean": 27.62,
      "seats_median": 28,
      "seats_p05": 23,
      "seats_p95": 32,
      "prob_largest_seat_party": 0.0,
      "prob_any_seats": 1.0,
      "prob_local_12pct_exception_sub_4pct": 0.0,
      "vote_share_p10": 6.623,
      "vote_share_p25": 6.966,
      "vote_share_p75": 8.204,
      "vote_share_p90": 8.527,
      "seats_p10": 24,
      "seats_p25": 25,
      "seats_p75": 30,
      "seats_p90": 31
    },
    "MP": {
      "party": "MP",
      "vote_share_mean": 7.505,
      "vote_share_median": 7.585,
      "vote_share_p05": 6.098,
      "vote_share_p95": 8.7,
      "prob_above_4pct": 1.0,
      "prob_below_4pct": 0.0,
      "prob_largest_vote_party": 0.0,
      "seats_mean": 27.29,
      "seats_median": 28,
      "seats_p05": 22,
      "seats_p95": 32,
      "prob_largest_seat_party": 0.0,
      "prob_any_seats": 1.0,
      "prob_local_12pct_exception_sub_4pct": 0.0,
      "vote_share_p10": 6.392,
      "vote_share_p25": 6.979,
      "vote_share_p75": 8.063,
      "vote_share_p90": 8.463,
      "seats_p10": 23,
      "seats_p25": 25,
      "seats_p75": 29,
      "seats_p90": 31
    },
    "SD": {
      "party": "SD",
      "vote_share_mean": 19.085,
      "vote_share_median": 18.999,
      "vote_share_p05": 16.993,
      "vote_share_p95": 21.598,
      "prob_above_4pct": 1.0,
      "prob_below_4pct": 0.0,
      "prob_largest_vote_party": 0.0,
      "seats_mean": 69.37,
      "seats_median": 69,
      "seats_p05": 61,
      "seats_p95": 78,
      "prob_largest_seat_party": 0.0,
      "prob_any_seats": 1.0,
      "prob_local_12pct_exception_sub_4pct": 0.0,
      "vote_share_p10": 17.312,
      "vote_share_p25": 18.008,
      "vote_share_p75": 19.978,
      "vote_share_p90": 21.17,
      "seats_p10": 63,
      "seats_p25": 66,
      "seats_p75": 73,
      "seats_p90": 77
    },
    "REST": {
      "party": "REST",
      "vote_share_mean": 1.979,
      "vote_share_median": 1.993,
      "vote_share_p05": 0.541,
      "vote_share_p95": 3.32,
      "prob_above_4pct": 0.0094,
      "prob_below_4pct": 0.9906,
      "prob_largest_vote_party": 0.0,
      "seats_mean": 0.0,
      "seats_median": 0,
      "seats_p05": 0,
      "seats_p95": 0,
      "prob_largest_seat_party": 0.0,
      "prob_any_seats": 0.0,
      "prob_local_12pct_exception_sub_4pct": 0.0,
      "vote_share_p10": 0.881,
      "vote_share_p25": 1.449,
      "vote_share_p75": 2.517,
      "vote_share_p90": 3.001,
      "seats_p10": 0,
      "seats_p25": 0,
      "seats_p75": 0,
      "seats_p90": 0
    }
  },
  "threshold_probabilities_4pct": {
    "M": 1.0,
    "L": 0.0,
    "C": 1.0,
    "KD": 1.0,
    "S": 1.0,
    "V": 1.0,
    "MP": 1.0,
    "SD": 1.0
  },
  "groups": {
    "tido": {
      "parties": [
        "M",
        "SD",
        "KD",
        "L"
      ],
      "mean_seats": 158.67,
      "prob_majority": 0.0007
    },
    "red_green_center": {
      "parties": [
        "S",
        "V",
        "MP",
        "C"
      ],
      "mean_seats": 190.33,
      "prob_majority": 0.9993
    }
  },
  "change_since_prior": {
    "status": "AVAILABLE",
    "prior_as_of": "2026-08-23",
    "prior_snapshot_id": "06e4debd7150bc845650510c344a222bd7546951c2e3575d55026a93300bdbbc",
    "prior_deterministic_payload_sha256": "33e818990cf10994f652ad2d9ea32f1ff762cbd1ed4669e28197a1c8dc892ffd",
    "vote_share_median_change_pp": {
      "M": 0.023,
      "L": 0.011,
      "C": -0.032,
      "KD": 0.001,
      "S": -0.051,
      "V": 0.009,
      "MP": 0.028,
      "SD": 0.019,
      "REST": 0.007
    },
    "seat_median_change": {
      "M": 0,
      "L": 0,
      "C": 0,
      "KD": 0,
      "S": 0,
      "V": 0,
      "MP": 1,
      "SD": 0
    }
  },
  "deterministic_payload_sha256": "967795912c05a00e364d62c84430f664290fc8f390a370369482e8c38a625473",
  "rest_semantics": "REST is aggregate vote mass for modeled-as-ineligible parties; it cannot independently qualify or receive seats."
}